This is the game with the least points spread this weekend. It should also mean that it is the most competitive game. San Francisco vs. Dallas may be the best non-divisional rivalry in the NFL, so hopefully we expect a treat. There’s going to be a lot of buzz in Big D.
San Francisco needed a big comeback last week against the Rams just to get into the playoffs, and the 49ers have had an interesting season as they scrambled for the present and the future. They have a fair number of guys who were on the team when they went to the Super Bowl a few years ago, including quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo.
Dallas enters this game with only three wins against teams currently in the playoffs, including two against Philadelphia. (Last week was one of them and it did not really matter.) This is a good team that is able to score (first in the NFL) and create great games in defense, but the Cowboys have to prove that they can do it against good teams. I am not convinced.
San Francisco 49ers (10-7) vs. Dallas Cowboys (12-5)
Sunday, January 16, 2022
AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas
Odds (from Friday 14 January)
Spread 49ers +3 (-110), Cowboys -3 (-110)
Moneyline: 49ers +136, Cowboys -164
Bets I like
San Francisco ML (+136)
I’m not a fan of this Cowboys team. I think the 49ers have the better coach and a proven hand as a quarterback, and thus they are a great place to get upset. Taking the 49ers at +3 is the safest way to play it, but unless the number moves, there is not much value to either side, as three is such a common end margin. If you believe in SF as I do, then you might as well go for it.
Deebo Samuel over 64.5 yards receiver (-110)
Samuel is a monster and had a breakout season with more than 1,400 yards. He tends to get lost at times, but I like the fact that the 49ers have a game plan that ensures he gets the ball about half the time when they are not running it. Wind or loss, they will make sure they do not leave any bullets in the chamber.
Deebo Samuel most receiving yards in the game (+300)
In conjunction with the above, a good play from Samuel gives him a great chance to get more yards received than any other player in the game. Dallas really spreads the ball around, and the 49ers’ second most productive receiver, TE George Kittle, may be needed more than usual to help against passing rush. Love this value, especially when Samuel breaks a 60-yarder.